East Africa Rainy Season Freight Alert! Maersk has issued a customer advisory, warning that heavy rainfall could disrupt port operations and overland transportation.

Maersk recently alerted its customers that, due to potentially heavy rainfall and localized flooding in East Africa from October to December 2026, local land transportation, port operations, and terminal handling may face varying degrees of operational pressure, with possible delays or even disruptions to certain import, export, and transit shipments.

The East African rainy season, combined with El Niño, has significantly increased the risk of heavy rainfall.
         According to a customer advisory issued by Maersk on October 6, East Africa and surrounding regions are poised to enter the rainy season under the influence of El Niño. Meteorological forecasts indicate that most areas in the region may experience above-normal rainfall, with the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. However, the timing and intensity of these rains remain uncertain, and the impacts are likely to vary across different subregions.

         Maersk’s latest warning is grounded in clear meteorological evidence. According to a special El Niño report issued by FEWS NET on October 2, the 2026/27 El Niño event has rapidly intensified to an extremely strong level, with the Horn of Africa facing heavy rainfall and heightened flood risks from October to December 2026. An institutional analysis released by the Democratic Republic of the Congo indicates that current forecasts point to one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with impacts expected to persist through late 2026 and into early 2027—similar to the catastrophic flooding that struck the Horn of Africa at the end of 2023. Earlier, the Climate Prediction and Applications Center of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development for East Africa issued a regional climate outlook for October–December 2026, projecting an increased likelihood of above‑normal rainfall across much of the Horn of Africa, with particularly high odds—exceeding 400 millimeters of cumulative seasonal precipitation—in parts of south‑central Somalia, central Tanzania, and southeastern Ethiopia.

Land transportation and port operations are under simultaneous pressure, leaving transit cargo vulnerable to delays.
         If heavy rainfall triggers flooding or damages road infrastructure, access to ports, terminals, storage yards, and inland distribution centers may be restricted. Maersk notes that this could lead to extended transit times, temporary restrictions or even disruptions on certain routes, as well as delays in the movement of transit cargo to neighboring countries. At the same time, road closures and traffic congestion may lengthen truck turnaround times, reduce vehicle availability, and impair pickup and delivery efficiency. For export shipments, failure to reach the terminal on schedule could result in missed cut‑off times and the risk of container re‑stowage.

         Heavy rainfall not only disrupts transportation between ports and inland areas but can also impact terminal operations. Maersk notes that when weather conditions fail to meet safety standards, loading and unloading activities may slow down or even be temporarily suspended. This, in turn, affects yard‑handling efficiency and the pace of vessel loading and discharging, potentially extending a ship’s port stay. If cargo pickup and subsequent transport are likewise affected, the number of containers in the terminal yard could rise, leading to longer dwell times and making it more challenging to retrieve both import and export containers.

         Notably, East Africa’s major ports were already operating at high capacity even before the rainy season began. At Kenya’s Port of Mombasa, the seven-day average vessel waiting time in late September 2026 was approximately two days, with delays driven primarily by vessel queuing, truck shortages, customs bottlenecks, and equipment imbalances. Meanwhile, Tanzania’s Port of Dar es Salaam faced even greater congestion during the same period, with containers remaining on‑site for an average of about 14.7 days. As the principal gateways for East Africa and its landlocked neighboring countries—including Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—any further decline in operational efficiency could trigger a ripple effect that extends thousands of kilometers into the inland hinterland.

Maersk advises shippers to allow ample lead time and develop comprehensive end-to-end contingency plans.
         In light of potential weather impacts, Maersk advises shippers to allow extra time for transportation and planning, particularly for shipments destined for flood‑prone areas or carrying time‑sensitive cargo. Where feasible, export cargoes should be delivered to the terminal well in advance to avoid missing cut‑off times due to road or traffic disruptions. Additionally, shipping instructions, customs documentation, and other relevant materials should be submitted accurately and promptly to minimize avoidable delays.

         For imported goods, Maersk advises shippers to complete customs clearance and pick up the cargo promptly, and to verify road conditions and confirm that the destination is ready to receive the shipment before arranging transport. For time-sensitive or temperature-controlled shipments, Maersk recommends contacting its customer service team or a dedicated account manager as early as possible to facilitate an advance assessment of transportation arrangements. In addition, Maersk urges shippers to coordinate well in advance with carriers, customs brokers, and receiving facilities to confirm transport availability, road access conditions, and readiness at the destination. Shippers should also closely monitor shipment status and official weather advisories, and be prepared to adjust their transport or delivery plans as needed.

         At present, Maersk has not announced widespread disruptions to shipping in East Africa, but is instead issuing early warnings about potential operational risks based on anticipated weather conditions. The company stated that it will continue to monitor weather developments and their impact on cargo flows, and will issue further notices should there be any significant changes to operations or services.

China–Africa trade continues to grow; shippers are advised to make shipping arrangements well in advance.
         This early warning comes at a time when China–Africa trade is maintaining robust growth. Starting in May 2026, China will implement zero-tariff measures across the board for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, including Kenya, significantly accelerating African agricultural exports to China. According to Chinese customs data, from May to August 2026, China imported 3,762.8 tons of avocados from Kenya, a year-on-year increase of 63.22%. Meanwhile, the East African Community’s overall foreign trade remains vigorous, with China continuing to hold its position as the EAC’s largest trading partner. Against this backdrop, cargo transit times and supply-chain stability along East African routes are particularly critical for importers and exporters in the region.

         For shippers with recent plans for East African import‑export and transit shipments, it is essential to closely monitor road access, truck scheduling, terminal operations, and local weather conditions, while building in sufficient buffer time to account for potential delays. We recommend confirming the latest vessel schedules and port call arrangements with carriers as early as possible, allowing extra transit time for cargo destined for flood‑prone areas, and developing contingency plans in advance for time‑sensitive shipments to mitigate the impact of rainy‑season weather on the supply chain.