Intensive sailing cancellations ahead of Golden Week! A total of 79 sailings will be canceled, and foreign‑trade companies are urged to secure cargo space in advance.

As the National Day Golden Week approaches, shipping companies continue to adjust their capacity schedules. According to Drewry’s latest data, from September 14 to October 18, major east–west routes worldwide are expected to operate 79 blank sailings, accounting for 11% of scheduled sailings.

Pre‑Golden Week blank sailings are on the rise, as shipping lines proactively adjust capacity.
         During the Golden Week holiday, Chinese factories typically shut down, leading to a temporary decline in export volumes. Shipping lines often manage available capacity by proactively canceling or reducing sailings, thereby balancing supply and demand and supporting freight rates. This year, the combination of blank sailings, congestion at Asian ports, the resumption of Red Sea traffic, and the delivery of new vessels suggests that actual capacity constraints may be more severe than indicated by nominal figures. For foreign‑trade companies, it is crucial to understand the underlying logic of capacity management behind these blank sailings and to make informed forecasts about future space‑availability trends.

Over the next five weeks, 79 sailings have been canceled, with the largest share bound eastbound across the Pacific.
         Drury’s latest analysis covers major east–west trade lanes. Between September 14 and October 18, a total of 721 scheduled sailings were recorded, with 79 cancellations expected, resulting in a cancellation rate of 11%—meaning that 89% of scheduled sailings will proceed as planned. By route segment, transpacific eastbound services account for 52%, Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes make up 33%, and transatlantic services comprise 15%. Currently, blank sailings are concentrated primarily on transpacific eastbound routes, followed by Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean services. This uneven distribution underscores carriers’ strategic adjustments, scaling back capacity on routes where demand is relatively weak or supply is abundant.

         Compared with the overall trends over the next five weeks, the changes in the most recent week are more pronounced. According to Drewry data, the number of announced blank sailings for Weeks 38 through 41 has risen from 39 to 70, an increase of nearly 56% within a single week. Drewry notes that, as the holiday season approaches, further cancellations on China‑related routes remain possible. Shippers should closely monitor carriers’ subsequent schedule adjustments. Around the Golden Week period, if originally booked sailings are canceled, cargo may need to be re‑routed to alternative services, with corresponding shifts in vessel schedules. Carriers may further adjust capacity before the holiday to accommodate fluctuations in cargo volumes and changes in port‑side operational rhythms.

Freight rates have not yet adjusted in tandem, so foreign trade companies should confirm vessel schedules well in advance.
         When shipping lines add blank sailings, it typically reduces effective market capacity; however, freight rates have not yet reflected a corresponding sharp adjustment in line with the number of blank sailings. According to Drewry data, on September 10, the World Container Index stood at USD 4,476 per 40-foot container, essentially unchanged week over week. By route, rates on trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic services both rose by 2%, while rates on Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes fell by 3%. Despite the overall index remaining stable, trends across individual routes continue to diverge: U.S.-bound rates remain firm, supported by strong demand and constraints on Panama Canal transit, whereas European‑bound rates remain under pressure due to recovering capacity and weak demand. While the increase in blank sailings has not yet translated into immediate rate hikes, tighter space availability going forward could provide some support for freight rates on certain routes.

         Ahead of Golden Week, adjustments to vessel schedules have begun to mount. For foreign‑trade companies shipping in the near term, in addition to monitoring quotation changes, it is essential to promptly confirm booking details, including vessel calls and schedules, as well as any subsequent blank sailings. Particular attention should be paid to major routes such as trans‑Pacific services, Asia–Northern Europe, and Asia–Mediterranean. We recommend verifying the latest schedule information with carriers well in advance, allowing ample buffer time for transportation, and preparing contingency plans to address potential issues like container rejections or cargo reallocations. At the same time, keep a close eye on the pace of capacity recovery after the holiday and evolving port congestion trends, so you can adjust your shipment plans accordingly.