Booking activity is picking up ahead of Golden Week! Maersk has released an update on the Asia-Pacific market, noting that port congestion may continue to support freight rates.

As China’s National Day Golden Week approaches, the Asian container shipping market has not shown the sharp demand slowdown that had previously worried industry observers. According to Maersk’s Asia-Pacific Market Update released on September 9, fourth-quarter cargo volume planning, advance booking ahead of the Golden Week, and congestion at Asian ports remain the key features shaping the current market landscape. Haider Anjum, a senior analyst at Danske Bank, believes these trends could continue to underpin Maersk’s performance over the coming quarters.

Booking activity is picking up ahead of Golden Week, and Maersk is urging shippers to plan well in advance.
         In its latest market update, Maersk noted that as China’s Golden Week and the peak fourth-quarter season approach, shippers should promptly assess their shipping schedules for the coming months. For shipments scheduled to arrive in the fourth quarter, some volumes could be moved forward to before Golden Week—potentially securing space on vessels departing by the end of September—to broaden booking and routing options.

         Meanwhile, seasonal weather conditions and port congestion could continue to disrupt vessel operations and schedules, triggering a ripple effect. According to Maersk, citing data from Sea‑Intelligence, on-time performance at Asia’s 14 busiest ports has declined across the board, with delays likely to cascade into subsequent sailings and transpacific routes. Notably, Maersk previously announced schedule adjustments for certain services during the Golden Week holiday, including partial blank sailings on the Far East–Europe AE15, AE12, and AE1 services; transpacific routes will also see sailings realigned in response to holiday‑related demand.

Port congestion and vessel schedule delays persist, while the contraction of available capacity continues to underpin freight rates.
         According to Jyske Bank analyst Haider Anjum, the market has yet to show clear signs of a “normalization” in container shipping demand. He argues that advance booking, port congestion, vessel schedule delays, and relatively stable demand are collectively driving a contraction in effective capacity. Once vessels are delayed due to port congestion or adverse weather conditions, the available capacity for cargo transport declines accordingly; with demand remaining steady, this typically provides support for freight rates.

         In other words, the key issue in today’s market is not merely whether cargoes are available, but rather the extent of actual, effective shipping capacity. Declining port efficiency and weakening schedule reliability can both amplify the impact of capacity constraints on market prices.

Maersk has raised its earnings outlook three times this year; shippers should book space well in advance.
         These assessments align with Maersk’s operating performance so far this year. After reaffirming its full-year guidance in May, Maersk raised its 2026 underlying EBITDA forecast in June from $4.5 billion to $7.0 billion to $8.0 billion to $10.0 billion; in August, it further increased the range to $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, while lifting its underlying EBIT outlook to $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion. The company expects global container‑shipping volume to grow by approximately 4% in 2026.

         Based on the latest results, Maersk’s second-quarter ocean freight volumes increased 4.1% year over year, while average freight rates rose 22% compared with the same period last year. The Ocean segment posted EBIT of $935 million, reversing a loss of $192 million in the first quarter. Haider Anjum believes that if current rate levels remain broadly stable through the final months of the year, the likelihood of Maersk revising its full-year guidance upward will further increase. However, this remains an analyst’s view and does not reflect any new guidance issued by Maersk.

         At present, pre‑booking ahead of the Golden Week holiday, congestion at Asian ports, and vessel schedule delays are collectively constraining available capacity in the market. For shippers, in addition to monitoring freight rate trends, it is increasingly important to closely track space availability, sailing schedules, and port operations around the Golden Week period—particularly for shipments scheduled for the fourth quarter. Shippers should arrange bookings well in advance and develop contingency plans.